@Simeon_Cps - If there's one guy you should trust on AI predictions it's
Siméon✓@Simeon_Cps
2024-02-23If there's one guy you should trust on AI predictions it's Daniel Kokotajlo.
Why?
He's written in Aug. 2021 the best AI detailed prediction out there.
It's incredibly prescient, in the pre-ChatGPT era where no one was using LLMs.
A part of 2023 in screenshot, link below.
AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️@AISafetyMemes2024-02-23OpenAI researcher: “Probably there will be AGI soon- literally any year now” "If one of our training runs works way better than we expect, we'd have a rogue ASI on our hands Hopefully it would have internalized enough human ethics that things are OK" "Whoever controls ASI will have... godlike powers." "Technologies that seem like magic to us" "Probably whoever controls AGI will be able to use it to get to ASI shortly thereafter -- maybe in another year, give or take a year" AISM note #1: IIRC, Kurzweil still thinks AGI 2029 but no ASI until 2040 which makes zero sense to me - why would AI hang out around human level for 11 years given the exponential we're on? AISM note #2: Kokotaljo is a respected forecaster who thinks deeply about these things
