@dwarkesh_sp - The @JeffDean & @NoamShazeer episode. We talk about 25

The @JeffDean & @NoamShazeer episode. We talk about 25 years at Google, from PageRank to MapReduce to the Transformer to MoEs to AlphaChip – and soon to ASI. My favorite part was Jeff's vision for AGI as one giant MoE that is grown in bits and pieces over time like a forest, rather than trained all at once. Specialization, distillation, inference time scaling all emerge organically rather than by design. Noam bites every bullet: 100x world GDP soon; let’s get a million automated researchers running in the Google datacenter; living to see the year 3000. Links below. Enjoy! Timestamps 0:00:00 - Intro 0:03:29 - Joining Google in 1999 0:06:20 - Future of Moore's Law 0:11:04 - Future TPUs 0:13:56 - Jeff’s undergrad thesis: parallel backprop 0:15:54 - LLMs in 2007 0:25:09 - “Holy shit” moments 0:27:28 - AI fulfills Google’s original mission 0:32:00 - Doing Search in-context 0:36:12 - The internal coding model 0:37:29 - What will 2027 models do? 0:43:20 - A new architecture every day? 0:49:10 - Automated chips and intelligence explosion 0:53:07 - Future of inference scaling 1:02:38 - Already doing multi-datacenter runs 1:08:15 - Debugging at scale 1:12:41 - Fast takeoff and superalignment 1:20:51 - A million evil Jeff Deans 1:24:22 - Fun times at Google 1:27:51 - World compute demand in 2030 1:34:37 - Getting back to modularity 1:44:48 - Keeping a giga-MoE in-memory 1:49:35 - All of Google in one model 1:57:59 - What’s missing from distillation 2:03:10 - Open research, pros and cons 2:09:58 - Going the distance