@kimmonismus - This is a must read for every one interested in AI and its

This is a must read for every one interested in AI and its future developement. The article, published on February 17, 2025, analyzes different types of possible “intelligence explosions” (IE) - scenarios in which AI systems can independently develop ever more powerful AI systems. The authors identify three important feedback loops that could drive an IE: Software feedback loop: AI improves AI algorithms and software Chip technology feedback loop: AI improves the quality of AI chips Chip production feedback loop: AI increases the quantity of AI chips produced These loops differ in their time delays: Software: ~3 months (for training new AI) Chip technology: several months (for integration and manufacturing) Chip production: years (to build new factories) Based on these loops, the authors define three types of intelligence explosions: Software IE: driven by software improvements alone AI technology IE: driven by software and chip technology improvements Full-stack IE: includes all three feedback loops Even if the software feedback loop is not strong enough for an IE, the other two types could still occur. The authors estimate that these feedback loops could increase effective computing power by 13-33 orders of magnitude before physical limits are reached. The different IE types have different strategic implications for the distribution of power: A software IE would concentrate power with owners of AI chips and algorithms, mainly in the US An AI technology IE would also include countries with a strong semiconductor industry (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Netherlands) A full-stack IE would distribute power more broadly and could involve countries such as China and the Gulf States to a greater extent The article outlines three possible scenarios: a gradual scenario (slow start, later acceleration), an uneven scenario (limited software IE followed by slower other IEs) and a fast scenario in which