@liron - Full podcast with Zvi and @TheoJaffee is in my top 1% of
Liron Shapira✓@liron
.@TheZvi's P(doom) is 60%.
You may not like it, but this is what peak rationality looks like:
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Liron Shapira✓@liron
Here's the @JanLeike position Zvi says he admires:
https://x.com/liron/status/1688951847682543616
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Liron Shapira✓@liron
To the commenters shocked that Zvi’s probability numbers don’t come from an “objective calculation”:
1. Approximating numerical probabilities is *required* if you want to make coherent decisions.
2. Probability is subjective (a property of our belief-state) for us Bayesians.
Liron Shapira✓@liron
2023-11-27Full podcast with Zvi and @TheoJaffee is in my top 1% of content, highly recommended.
I couldn't resist posting a long clip above because Zvi's analysis is so sharp.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArfVYNR4Uk4